Work Package 3.2 A desertification indicator system for Mediterranean Europe (AUA, UNIBAS-DPV-AF, UNIVLEEDS)

This work package will combine the sub-national scale ESAIS with the regional and Mediterranean wide scale RDI into a Desertification Indicator System for Mediterranean Europe.

Physical, socio-economic, technological and environmental factors all put pressure on land use resources. It is only through an integrated approach, which incorporates information and indicators from many different sources that a complete, yet concise, idea of the current state of the land and land use and how they are changing can be developed. The potential of such an approach as a tool for management at both local and regional scales is considerable. Both parts of the desertification indicator system may be used as tools to explore, with selected stakeholders, the relationship between degradation of the environment and human activity; in particular the effects that different intervention policies or methods have on the environmental sensitivity of an area. It may be possible to evaluate the efficiency and efficacy that different mitigation or intervention strategies have on the environment. The tools also allow for effective land management and degradation monitoring and enable different ecosystem vulnerability scenarios to be tested in order to assess critical stress factors and their impacts on desertification. A major innovation in this work package is the drawing together of a wide range of indicator types, applicable for different scales into an integrated indicator system which can then be used for examining different management scenarios (in WP3.4).

1. Desertification Indicator System for Mediterranean Europe

The review of indicator systems developed in WP1.1, the ESAIS developed in WP2.1 and the modelling software developed in the RDI in WP 2.2, together with their databases, will be fully documented and made available in a form suitable for use by the various stakeholders.

2. Presentation of new target area and regional maps of sensitivity

The ESAIS and the RDI will be used to identify high risk areas at sub-national and Mediterranean-wide scales. New target area wide maps of high risk areas will be compiled based on the ESAIS. Mediterranean-wide maps of erosion and salinity risk will be derived from the RDI. They will be used in the comparison of the ESAIS and RDI methodologies in order to first evaluate the local validity of RDI estimates and secondly to refine erosion estimates using the additional data inherent in the ESAIS.

3. An analysis of how different scale indicators can be combined.

Establishment of systematic links between the RDI scale indicators and the ESAIS and the formation of a Desertification Indicator System for Mediterranean Europe. Although the RDI model makes use of some locally derived data, the ESAIS contains additional information which is able, in principle, to provide a basis for improved estimates of soil erosion and other desertification risks. ESA data is both derived at a finer spatial resolution, and contains datasets not included in the RDI. The challenge of this task is to make a systematic link between RDI forecasts and the semi-qualitative local knowledge which is implicit in the ESAs at a regional level. This comparison will be made with the involvement of the target area groups, both to provide the ESA data at an early stage and to provide regionally realistic scenarios of land use change. With these data, it is proposed to relate ESA parameters to RDI parameters, in order first to evaluate the local validity of RDI estimates and second to refine erosion estimates using the additional data inherent in the ESAIS. It is expected that this will lead to a generic methodology, but that application to each target area will be particular to that area.

4. High risk maps under different "what if?" scenarios

A further series of high risk maps will be produced under the different "what if?" scenarios identified by the focus groups in WPs 1.2, 1.3 and 1.4; to examine the effects of different land use decisions, including different mitigation practices, on desertification indicators at the local scale. Benefit Analysis will be used to evaluate the effect of selected types of land use and management parameters on desertification, including the current budget constraints and the proposals of the European Union in the Agenda 2000 for agriculture, forestry and environment. Additionally, the analysis will be based on the overall benefits including best options for mitigation of desertification in environmentally sensitivity areas.

Results. A manual entitled "Desertification Indicator System for Mediterranean Europe", comprising both the RDI and the ESAIS set within the context of the wider debate on indicators; demonstrating the types of information needed with the inclusion of the target area databases; example maps of risk at sub-national and Mediterranean-wide scales; recommendations for how indicator information at different scales can be integrated; examples of how the indicator system can be used to examine different management scenarios.