Foresight: Early Warning & Preventative Policy

Funded by the European Research Council, FORESIGHT aims to understand under what conditions warnings about the escalation of violent conflict are noticed by policy makers and acted upon.

Objectives:

• To identify and evaluate the underlying factors shaping the production, communication and perception of early warning.
• To identify and evaluate the factors, which influence whether early warnings are taken seriously by the aforementioned political actors.
• To develop performance indicators for early warning production, communication and perception.
• To compare the findings regarding the impact of forecasts on conflict prevention with the insights of the broader literature regarding preventive action in other policy areas.