Probabilistic prediction for flood risk management

A Workshop at the RGS on 8 October 2010

Recent years have seen intensive efforts to develop and apply probabilistic forecasting methods to assess and communicate the uncertainty of hydrometeorological and climate prediction. This workshop sought to enrich understanding of these methods and of the promise-- and problems-- associated with their application to different aspects of water resource management.

To that end a select group of operational forecast providers, modelling researchers, civil protection officials, and social scientists from across Europe gathered at the Royal Geographical Society in London to work through some questions about the nature of forecasting (and other) uncertainties, predictability and its limits, and the communication, application and use of probabilistic and other modelling outputs.

Funding for the workshop was provided by the ESRC as part of a research grant (RES-062-23-0913) to Professor David Demeritt and Hannah Cloke, entitled "Europeanizing flood forecasting and the geographies of risk and science in the EU".

The programme for the day was broken up into four major sections and you can download most of the presentations below, though several of the larger files have been broken up into 2 parts for convenient mounting on the web.

Progress in ensemble forecasting and uncertainty assessment

He Yi (UEA), Desmond Manful (King’s College London), Hannah Cloke (King’s College London), NEWS: Novel Early flood Warning & Risk Assessment System

Jeff Knight (UK Met Office) Monthly to Decadal Prediction at the Met Office Hadley Centre
pdf

Jutta Thielen (JRC) EPS and the Development of Transnational Early Flood Warning Systems pdf

Operational experiences of probabilistic prediction & delivery

Käthi Liechti (Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL), Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Chains at WSL: Real-time Experience since Map-D phase pdf

Graeme Boyce (Joint Flood Forecasting Centre for England & Wales), Early Experiences with the Extreme Rainfall Alert Service and Flood Guidance Statement at the Met Office and FFC
pdf

Eric Sprokkereef (Rijkswaterstaat) The FEWS NL Forecasting System and First Experiences with Probabilistic Predictions in the Netherlands pdf

Gabor Balint (VITUKI: Hungary), Hungarian Flood Management and the Development of the VITUKI NHFS/OVSZ Model (part 1) (part 2)

Developing and using probabilistic flood forecasts: reflections from civil protection authorities

Natalie Stahl (Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt and the Abteilung Hydrologie) Developing probabilistic tools for Civil Protection Authorities pdf

Stefan Kreuzer (Amt der NÖ Landesregierung Abteilung Feurwehr und Zivilschutz Landeswarnzentrale) Using EPS in disaster management: A case study from Lower Austria (part 1) (part 2)

Thibault Mathevet (Énergie de France, EDF) Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasts at EDF pdf

Institutional Dimensions of Probabilistic Flood Prediction and Warning

David Demeritt (Kings College London), Perceptions of ensemble flood forecasts: lessons from ESRC research into the European Flood Forecasting System pdf

Laurence Créton-Cazanave (CNRS, Institut de Géographie Alpine, Grenoble), Within the scope of the "distances analysis frame", what place for probabilistic forecasts in the warning process? pdf

Sébastien Nobert (King’s College London), Institutional factors influencing the response to probabilistic forecasts: Modelling the warning- response problem pdf

Attached files

› Demeritt (pdf, 1,270 KB)
› Creton-Cazavane (pdf, 212 KB)
› Nobert (pdf, 737 KB)
› Thielen (pdf, 774 KB)
› Thibault (pdf, 1,481 KB)
› Liecht (pdf, 1,985 KB)
› Sprokkereef (pdf, 1,239 KB)
› Stahl (pdf, 1,210 KB)
› knight (pdf, 1,561 KB)
› Balint pdf part 1 (pdf, 1,643 KB)
› Balint pdf part 2 (pdf, 1,798 KB)
› Kreuzer pdf part 2 (pdf, 1,345 KB)
› Kreuzer pdf part 1 (pdf, 1,103 KB)
› Boyce pdf (pdf, 1,438 KB)