Estimating probabilities and numbers of direct care workers paid under the National Minimum Wage in the UK: A Bayesian approach
SCWP Issue 16: December 2011
Issue 16 of the Social Care Workforce Periodical estimates that the prevalence and number of direct care workers being paid under the National Minimum Wage (NMW) are much larger than previously believed. Using a Bayesian approach to combine new analysis derived from the Longitudinal Care Study, conducted by King’s College London, the National Minimum Data Set for Social Care and previously published estimates by the Low Pay Commission, the analysis indicates that from 9 to 13 percent, or 156,673 to 219,241, of direct care workers in the UK are likely to be being paid under the NMW. Interim findings from the study formed part of a recent BBC Panorama programme ‘All work and low pay’ (see below).
Download SCWP Issue 16: December 2011 (pdf, 2.9 MB) ISSN 2047-9638
Response from the Department of Health (pdf, 13 KB)
Wakefield, H. (2012) 'Who cares about care workers? [blog post]'. Public Finance Opinion/blog, 8 October.
Daily Mirror (online): 'Below minimum wage for care workers the "new normal"' (N. Sommerlad, 19 April 2012)
The Guardian: 'Minimum wage is least care workers deserve', (Gavin Kelly, 18 April 2012)
New Statesman: 'The scandal of low-paid care workers' (blog post by Gavin Kelly and Joe Coward, 22 December 2011)
BBC Panorama: ‘All work and low pay’, 3 October 2011 (programme available on iPlayer for a year from date of last broadcast, 9 October 2011. Programme segment focusing on social care, including an interview with Dr Hussein, is at 16min 28sec)
BBC Panorama: ‘Thousands of care workers paid under legal limit’ (online article, 2 October 2011)
The Guardian: ‘150,000 social care workers paid below legal minimum wage, research reveals’ (3 October 2011)
Community Care: ‘Up to 200,000 care assistants paid below minimum rate’ (3 October 2011)
Analysis of pay levels and differentials are discussed in Issue 6 and Issue 7 of the Social Care Workforce Periodical.
Hussein, S. (2012) 'Pay differentials in the low paid employment of social care' [pdf, 1.5 MB], Low Pay Commission Annual Research Workshop, London, 10 October.
Hussein, S. & Manthorpe, J. (2012) 'Combining knowledge to estimate the percentage of care workers paid under the national minimum wage in the UK: a Bayesian approach' [pdf, 570 KB], Royal Statistical Society 2012 International Conference, Telford, 4 September.
Hussein, S. (2012) ‘Senior Research Fellow Dr Shereen Hussein responds to current debates on wages, migrant workers and the care sector in England [SCWRU news item]’, 22 June.
Hussein, S. (2012) 'National Minimum Wage and the social care sector' [pdf, 1.06 MB], Resolution Foundation, London, 27 March.
Hussein, S. (2012) 'The scale of very low-pay for care workers is much larger than previously anticipated and demands immediate attention [blog post]', British Politics and Policy at LSE, 17 January.