King's College London

Research has often attributed the rise of populist right-wing parties, such as the forces behind Donald Trump in the US or Brexit in the UK, to economic grievances in poorer, "left-behind" towns.

However, the INEQCHANGE project will examine why support for such political parties is actually surging in many objectively wealthy regions across Europe, where conditions for this phenomenon theoretically shouldn't be favourable.

Led by Professor Sofia Vasilopoulou, the five-year project has been awarded almost €2 million by the European Research Council. The research will shift focus away from broad regional statistics, instead focussing directly on local electoral constituencies. Instead of measuring overall wealth, Prof Vasilopoulou and her research team will examine shorter-term fluctuations in living standards, such as local housing markets, business closures, and real wage changes, that can create a sense of decline even in affluent communities.

The data collection effort will include five European countries: France, Germany, Greece, Poland, and Sweden. Using a mix of local economic data, focus groups, and public opinion surveys, the researchers aim to understand the psychological "micro-foundations" of voting behaviour. They will explore how voters' personal self-interest, feelings of community decline, comparisons with other towns, and changing values ultimately drive their political choices at the ballot box.