King's College London

In a paper published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), researchers found Ukrainians registered 38,833 new firms in Poland between 2022 and 2023. This surge accounted for seven per cent of all new business registrations in the country during that period.

The study, authored by Pierre-Louis Vézina and Cevat Giray Aksoy (King’s College London), and Piotr Lewandowski (Institute for Structural Research), challenges the idea that refugees are a burden on host economies. By linking business registry data with refugee settlement records, the researchers determined that 58 per cent of these post-invasion founders were refugees fleeing the war.

The report also identifies a positive "multiplier effect" on the Polish economy. Rather than crowding out local enterprise, the arrival of Ukrainian businesses encouraged the creation of new Polish firms. The data indicates that a 10 per cent increase in Ukrainian business registrations resulted in a 2.31 per cent rise in Polish firm creation.

The authors suggest this economic synergy is driven by two main factors: emulation and supply-chain linkages. Survey evidence included in the study shows that 88 per cent of Ukrainian firms engage in local business-to-business transactions, while nearly 60 per cent of Ukrainian owners reported that Polish entrepreneurs had started similar businesses, suggesting a "creative emulation" effect.

The findings highlight that despite the humanitarian crisis, the integration of refugees into the formal economy has generated significant commercial dynamism across sectors ranging from construction to IT.

You can read the paper in full here.