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Domenico Giannone: Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics

Online

21 Sep qcgbf-virtual-seminar-series Part of Qatar Centre for Global Banking & Finance Virtual Seminar Series
Domenico-Giannone

Domenico Giannone (Amazon) will present 'Multimodality in Macro-Financial Dynamics', with Nina Boyarchenko and Tobias Adrian.

We estimate the evolution of the conditional joint distribution of economic and financial conditions in the United States, documenting a novel empirical fact: while the joint distribution is approximately Gaussian during normal periods, sharp tightenings of financial conditions lead to the emergence of additional modes—that is, multiple economic equilibria. Although the U.S. economy has historically reverted quickly to a “good” equilibrium after a tightening of financial conditions, we conjecture that poor policy choices under these circumstances could also open a pathway to a “bad” equilibrium for a prolonged period. We argue that such multimodality arises naturally in a macro-financial intermediary model with occasionally binding intermediary constraints.

At this event

Francesca Monti

Francesca Monti

Deputy Director of the Qatar Centre for Global Banking & Finance

David Aikman

David Aikman

Director of the Qatar Centre for Global Banking & Finance


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