Can Debt Undermine Peace? External Borrowing and Armed Conflict in Africa
About the Seminar
This study examines the effect of external debt on armed conflict in Africa using a panel of 47 countries covering the period 1996-2022. To estimate this relationship, we employ several complementary empirical approaches, including Probit estimations, instrumental variables (2SLS), and the System-GMM estimator. The results show that an increase in external debt significantly raises the probability of armed conflict. This relationship remains robust across alternative model specifications and estimation strategies. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is stronger in highly indebted, resource-rich, low-income countries with weak institutional quality. The regional analysis further indicates that the effect is particularly pronounced in Central, West, and North Africa. Finally, the results identify state capacity, corruption, inflation, and income inequality as important channels through which external debt increases the risk of armed conflict. These findings suggest that prudent external debt management, combined with stronger economic governance and enhanced state capacity, could help reduce the sources of fragility that fuel armed conflict in Africa.
About the Speaker
Dr. Brice Kamguia is an economist, researcher, and lecturer in the Department of Public Economics at the University of Yaoundé II–Soa, Cameroon. He is an Early Career Researcher (ECR) within the African Research Universities Alliance (ARUA), where he contributes to research and capacity-building activities addressing key development challenges in Africa. His research interests span development economics, energy economics, and inequality. He is also increasingly engaged in research on peace, security, and conflict in Africa, examining the economic and institutional factors shaping conflict and resilience.Dr. Kamguia has extensive experience in policy-oriented research and international development, including previous work with the World Bank Group and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). His research has been published in leading international journals, including Energy Policy, Ecological Economics, Energy Strategy Reviews, Journal of Development Studies, Climate Policy and Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, etc.
About the Just Transitions and Interdisciplinary Peace (JTIP) Seminar Series
The JTIP Seminar Series involves regular presentations and discussions convened in a hyflex format, where speakers share their ongoing and impactful research on the themes outlined above. Participation is open to the general public, although the JTIP research group is based at the Global Institutes at King’s College London. Please get in touch if you want to be involved.
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