Seminar: Evaluating environmental policy impacts in northern China

Abstract

China has the capacity, perhaps like no other nation, to develop and implement large-scale policies in hopes of transitioning toward more sustainable development. While China certainly uses this narrative to its advantage, robust evaluation of how much policy actually affects behaviour and outcomes are relatively scarce. In this talk, I will present work from two impact evaluation studies from northern China. The first is an evaluation of the Paddy Land-to-Dry Land (PLDL) program, a “payment for ecosystem services” program that aims to protect water quality and quantity for the Miyun reservoir that serves Beijing, China. Our analysis integrates hydrologic data with household survey data and shows that the PLDL generates benefits of improved water quantity and quality that exceed the costs of reduced agricultural output. Household data show that changes in livelihood activities may offset some of the desired effects of the program through increased expenditures on agricultural fertilizers. The second program is the coal-to-electricity program in Beijing. Here we estimate this programme’s impact on household energy use and expenditure, well-being, and indoor environmental quality by comparing treated and untreated villages. We find that, under this programme, households in high- and middle-income districts eliminated coal use with benefits to indoor temperature, indoor air pollution and life satisfaction. In a low-income district, the policy had partial effectiveness: coal use was contingent on household wealth, and there were fewer benefits to the indoor environment and negative impacts on well-being. A larger study is underway to evaluate this program more thoroughly. Program evaluation also highlights the importance of considering behavioural changes by program participants.

Our Speaker

Dr Brian Robinson (Mcgill University). Dr. Brian E. Robinson is an Associate Professor at McGill University. His research looks at how policies and governance mediate people’s use of ecosystems and natural resources, and the role this plays in development. Dr. Robinson originally became interested in examining these topics while living in Sichuan, as a US Peace Corps Volunteer. He went on to conduct his PhD research in China, examining the adoption of self-governance over natural resources in northwest Yunnan. Since then, in addition to several projects in other areas of the world, the majority of his field work has remained in China. He leads projects on grassland governance in Inner Mongolia, watershed management in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, and an impact evaluation of the household coal-to-electricity program in Beijing. Methodologically, his work draws from environmental and development economics, geography, ecology, and land systems science. He holds a PhD from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, master’s degrees from MIT, and an undergraduate degree from Georgia Tech.

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