South Africa after the 2019 Election: Reversion or Reform?

Speaker: Professor Roger Southall, University of the Witwatersrand.
Chair: Merle Lipton, Africa Research Group, KCL

Roger Southall is Emeritus Professor in Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand. In this Africa Research Group talk he will discuss his new book, Election 2019: Change and Stability in South Africa’s Democracy (Jacana), co-edited with Collette Schulz-Herzenberg. His earlier books include Liberation Movements in Power: Party & State in Southern Africa (2013) and The New Black Middle Class in South Africa (2016).

The ruling African National Congress (ANC) confronted the South African electorate in May 2019 with a dismal record of of scandal, corruption, economic incompetence and widespread popular protest. It was therefore expected that it would lose ground in the election, though few believed that it would lose its longstanding majority in parliament. But buoyed by the personal popularity of its leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, who billed himself as a reformer, the ANC was again returned to power. Although the result was ANC's worst electoral performance since 1994, it won with a comfortable 58% of the popular vote.

In this seminar, Roger Southall will the explore 'optimistic' and 'pessimistic' interpretations of South Africa’s election. Optimists conclude that, given the alternatives offered by Ramaphosa’s ANC rivals and by the opposition Democratic Alliance and Economic Freedom Fighters, the electorate opted for parties of the political centre. The implication is that, despite its challenges, South African democracy is maturing. The pessimists argue that electoral statistics demonstrate an alarming lack of popular participation in the electoral process, increasing political alienation, a shift in voting to the political extremes, and conclude that democracy is being hollowed out. The competing merits of these explanations will be examined, with a view to assessing the prospects for South African democracy.