The End of Nagorno Karabakh – but not of the power politics in the South Caucasus

The events in the South Caucasus unfolded with a lightening speed. On 19 September, Azerbaijan launched what it called an “anti-terror” operation with artillery and drones. Within 24-hours, the besieged population of Karabakh surrendered, and on 28 September, their leadership announced that the region’s sovereignty was abolished. The pace of the population exodus leaves little doubt that presence of the Armenian community in Karabakh is gone. Azerbaijan has not achieved all its goals yet in securing transport routes and its border with Armenia, and presses ahead with an advantage. The events took the West by surprise, but not Russia and Turkey who made a strategic calculation not to stand in a way of Azerbaijan. Currently, the situation is dynamic and reshaping of regional relations is under way.

These developments pose many questions. How will internal strife in Armenia be resolved? What are the humanitarian implications of the population influx? Does Armenia’s rift with Russia present a fundamental shift? If so, what does the West has to offer? How will trade and energy routes adjust and will new opportunities open? What are the prospects of an Armenia – Turkey normalisation process? And, lastly, what are the implications for liberal peace, after the demonstration effect of the use-of-force, on other unresolved conflict?

Experts on the South Caucasus, Thomas de Waal, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe, Anna Matveeva, Senior Visiting Research Fellow, King’s Russia Institute, and Laurence Broers, South Caucasus Programme Co-director at Conciliation Resources, discuss these dilemmas at a roundtable on 11 October.

The event will take place in room 1.05, Bush House South East building.