(Defence Academy staff only)

China’s rise and Middle Eastern insecurity are two dominating themes in international relations today. Yet, their relevance for each other is less discussed. The most important connection is China’s and the Persian Gulf region’s new economic interdependence – a part of Asia’s so-called New Silk Roads. Energy and non-energy trade between the Gulf and China has grown fast and is increasingly accompanied by investment flows in both directions, as well as closer diplomatic relations. The same has happened with regards to the ties between the Gulf and other Asian countries, like India. Nevertheless, it is still the US that underwrites basic regional stability with its military presence. So far, Asian countries, China included, have thus benefited by fee-riding on it. However, as China’s power increases and US appetite for Middle Eastern engagement decreases, it needs to be asked whether China (or anyone else) will one day inherit the American mantle and geo-politically dominate the Gulf.This talk seeks to answer that question via the help of three types of contextualization: Firstly, the use of the two most influential, but antagonistic IR theories – neo-liberal institutionalism and neo-realism – tests which is the more accurate for China’s Gulf role. Secondly, a brief recap of historical analogies regarding previous external powers and their rivalries in the Gulf is provided. These range from early-modern actors, over the British Raj and to the American hegemon. Thirdly, a comparison between current American, Chinese, and Indian capabilities, and their future opportunities and risks in the Gulf is undertaken. Why is this important? On the one hand, the world economy’s hydrocarbon-dependence continues to rely on the Gulf’s huge reserves. On the other, the region offers a long history of geo-strategic centrality to world affairs and will likely also help determine into which direction global power flows in the 21st century.