The Early Warning Project aims to give governments, advocacy groups, and at-risk societies earlier and more reliable warning, and thus more opportunity to take action, before such killings occur. The project is a joint initiative of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum and the Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College. The Early Warning Project produces risk assessments of the potential for mass killing around the world by combining state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative analysis.

 

 The talk will include discussion of:

• Quantitative forecasting models – how we interpret the results and which risk factors are the most important predictors of mass killing;
• Crowd forecasting platforms and the pros and cons of using the “wisdom of the crowd” for real-time risk assessments
• Qualitative country-specific field research and how to use scenario mapping methodology as a tool for understanding and action.

 

* Mollie Zapata is a senior research analyst for the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, where she is responsible for conducting quantitative and qualitative research on a wide range of issues related to genocide prevention, with a primary focus on the Center’s Early Warning Project. Mollie also leads the center’s field research on “early warning” country cases, including Mali and Côte d’Ivoire. Previously Mollie worked in natural language processing analytics at Protagonist, and her other work experience includes the US Institute for Peace, the Institute for Inclusive Security, the World Peace Foundation, the Enough Project, and the National Geographic Society. Mollie holds an MA from The Fletcher School at Tufts University and a BA in international affairs from Boston University.

 

**Christoph Meyer is Professor of European and International Studies at King’s, Department of European and International Studies. He led a major project on early warning and conflict prevention (Foresight Project) , and is the author of a forthcoming book with Cambridge University Press (with de Franco and Otto), titled “Warning about War: Conflict, Persuasion, and Foreign Policy. He currently directs with Mike Goodman of War Studies an ESRC funded project on learning in foreign policy (INTEL).