King's College London

Following a recent visit to Beijing, Brown said Chinese colleagues had been “fairly relaxed” ahead of the talks, confident in their negotiating position and clear on their red lines. He argued that China gave up little, regained what it already had, and demonstrated its growing leverage—especially through its control of rare-earth metals, a crucial component of high-tech manufacturing. This leverage, he said, can be used to push the U.S. into more favourable future negotiations.

Asked which country currently holds the upper hand – America or China, Brown was unequivocal: “China does.” He noted that China remains a massive manufacturer, has strengthened its high-tech capabilities, and that President Xi Jinping’s domestic standing has only improved as he is seen as standing firm against Trump.

Regarding China’s recent signalling that it might restrict rare-earth exports—a move followed by Trump raising tariffs—Brown said Beijing deliberately waited until the last moment to show it could retaliate in ways that would “really, really hurt” the United States. This ultimately helped push both sides toward the long-overdue meeting.

When asked whether Xi prefers Trump or Vladimir Putin as a partner, Brown said without doubt, America. Despite tensions, the U.S. is far more vital to China than Russia, whose economy is roughly about 15% the size of China’s. Brown said China sees the Russia–Ukraine war ideally ending in a “draw,” but stressed that China does not view Russia as an equal. While Xi may appear aligned with Putin publicly, Brown hinted that pressure behind the scenes cannot be ruled out, noting that at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Xi was clearly the dominant figure.

Watch the interview