King's College London

New research has shown there is a push to accelerate rural road construction in the run-up to state elections, strategically timing projects to boost visibility before voters head to the polls.

The study, focusing on India's multi-billion Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) programme of rural road building, found a clear ‘electoral cycle’ influencing when roads were built.

Analysing data from 150,000 roads built across 18 Indian states between 2000 and 2013, Amrita Dhillon (King's College London), Ahana Basistha (TU Munich), and Arka Roy Chaudhuri (Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence) found a distinct pattern: Road sanctioning surged by about 40 per cent over the average in the fourth year of a politician’s five-year term. And this spike then translated into a significant increase in the awarding of contracts and road completions during the election year itself.

The evidence suggests that this was achieved by prioritising “easier to build” roads - those with shorter construction times - in the pre-election period. Roads sanctioned just before elections took about 19 fewer days (5.5 per cent less time) to complete on average compared to those sanctioned in a politician’s first year. Thus, electoral constituencies in districts with more barren or rocky land saw smaller election-year spikes in road sanctioning.

"Politicians time their effort strategically in the phase of PMGSY where they have the most significant formal role - sanctioning during the fourth year of their terms - so that there is a boost in the more visible aspects of road building, awards and completion, right before elections," the researchers said.

Moreover, it was uninformed voters who were targeted - electoral cycles in road building were significantly larger in constituencies with higher proportions of illiterate residents (a proxy for less informed voters). A one standard deviation increase in illiteracy correlated with 18 per cent more roads being sanctioned in an election year. The researchers suggest this is because informed voters can determine the competence level of the incumbent politician, while uninformed voters tended to infer the competence of the incumbent from the roads built.

Despite the strategic timing and project selection, the study found no corresponding negative impact on road quality, construction delays, or per-kilometre costs, likely due to PMGSY's centralised monitoring system. However, the researchers cautioned that prioritising easier roads pre-election could lead to geographical inequalities in connectivity over time, representing a potential long-term welfare cost.