Dr Paul Lincoln is a Physical Geographer specialising in past environmental change, palaeoclimatology, and proxy-based climatic reconstructions using statistical, Bayesian and machine-learning based approaches. He joined King’s College London as a Lecturer in Physical Geography in September 2025, having completed his PhD at Royal Holloway, University of London, in 2018 and held academic and postdoctoral positions at the Universities of Reading, Winchester, Portsmouth, and Royal Holloway.

In his most recent position, Paul worked on the DECADAL Project: Rethinking Palaeoclimatology for Society, where he generated high-resolution proxy records from varved lake sediments and integrated them with climate model simulations to investigate Holocene decadal variability in the North Atlantic–European sector. His role also involved linking palaeoclimate reconstructions with near-term prediction frameworks and co-producing outputs with climate services and policy partners to improve decadal climate forecasts and their application to pressing environmental challenges.

Research

• Hydroclimatic (temperature and precipitation) variability in the North Atlantic–European region and its impacts on society and ecosystems
• Phases of abrupt climate change during the Late Glacial and Holocene (~18ka to present)
• Lake sediment records as archives of past environmental and climatic change
• Drivers of abrupt climate variability, including volcanic activity, solar forcing, and ocean–atmosphere dynamics
• Building quantitative reconstructions and modelling of past climates to inform near-term predictions
• Linking palaeoclimate science with policy and climate services through co-produced research

Paul’s research investigates past climate variability and how shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns affect ecosystems, landscapes and human societies. He focuses on annually laminated (varved) lake sediments, using geochemical, isotopic and palaeoecological techniques alongside Bayesian and machine-learning models to reconstruct responses to abrupt and decadal-scale change.

His recent work has highlighted the sensitivity of high-latitude lakes to warmer climates, demonstrating the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems under future warming. He has also shown that early seasonal warming in Europe during the last deglaciation, driven by changes in North Atlantic sea ice, enabled the early human repopulation of north-west Europe. He is part of the UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship project DECADAL: Rethinking Palaeoclimatology for Society, which links proxy data with near-term climate predictions to improve decadal forecasts for the UK and Europe.

Further details

See Paul's research profile