Support & guidance
Work with King's
The Causal Modelling Group comprises statisticians and methodologists at King’s College London interested in drawing causal inferences from study data. Many empirical investigations aim to make causal inferences from observational studies or experiments. Causal questions range from “What would be the benefit of a new treatment?” or “What would be the harm of exposure to a risk factor?” to “How does this treatment/exposure change an outcome?” (effect mediation) or “Who would benefit/be harmed?” (effect moderation). The latter is of particular relevance in trials of mental health interventions (therapies) where a person’s ability to benefit might depend on baseline characteristics (predictive markers informing stratified medicine) or on aspects of therapy (process variable).
In our group we discuss how to conceptualise the causal question of interest, review principled methods for estimating such causal parameters – that is explicitly state the assumptions under which inferences are valid, and consider new methods that might allow us to draw causal inferences under weaker assumptions. We are meeting every fourth Wednesday of the month at 11:00am to discuss papers and ongoing work.
Reader in Medical Statistics
Rehabilitative therapies for chronic fatigue syndrome: a secondary mediation analysis of the PACE trial,01 February 2015.
Treatment mechanism in the MRC preschool autism communication trial: implications for study design and parent-focussed therapy for children, 08 July 2015.
Integrating biomarker information within trials to evaluate treatment mechanisms and efficacy for personalised medicine. Clinical Trials, 02 September 2013.
Developing models of how cognitive improvements change functioning: mediation, moderation and moderated mediation,13 April 2012.
Hernán MA, Robins JM (2020). Causal Inference. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC.
An introduction to causal inference, 26 February 2010.
Causal diagrams for epidemiologic research, January 1999.
David A. Kenny’s mediation website
Prof Sabine Landau Araya
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