International

Arms Control and Emerging Technology

Since the end of the Cold War, the need for nuclear risk reduction has never been so great but the tools for nuclear risk reduction have never been so lacking. In particular, existing arms control agreements and models do not incorporate emerging technologies, such as hypersonic glide vehicles, cyber, and space-based capabilities. These technologies will increasingly influence strategic stability by, for example, threatening nuclear command and control or undermining stealth technology.

For arms control  and/or confidence-building measures to have a future as a tool for strengthening strategic stability, the United States and Russia must recommit to cooperative efforts to manage emerging technologies. But in addition to the need for political will, there is also a need for evolution in arms control and other forms of negotiation and cooperation. Are there historical models for arms control or cooperation around emerging technology? Do emerging technologies present unique challenges for arms control and negotiations? And what new models might promote strategic stability?

Aims

This project will convene a workshop of international experts in nuclear, conventional, cyber, and space to identify specific opportunities for asymmetric arms control as a tool for strengthening strategic stability. 

Based on findings from the workshop and additional research, the project will deliver a new and creative agenda for arms control and confidence-building measures, and highlight opportunities for strengthening strategic stability and reducing risks beyond traditional forms of arms control. Indeed, we may be approaching a post-arms control era and need to identify new paradigms for incorporating and managing new technology.

Impact

This project will deliver a future arms control agenda for the United States, Russia, and potentially other international actors, such as China or the United Kingdom. 
It will offer a creative new approach to arms control that has the potential to strengthen strategic stability, increase transparency and predictability, incorporate emerging technologies to the broadening concept of strategic stability, and build a community of practice around arms control and confidence-building measures that will endure for decades.

Project team

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Reports

Arms Control Idol: Ideas for the Future of Strategic Cooperation and Community (PDF, 2.64MB)

Conferences

Arms Control Idol 2020

Inspired by Policy Idol, an annual competition hosted by the Policy Institute at King’s College London, Arms Control Idol 2020 was organised by the Centre for Science and Security Studies (CSSS) and the Department of War Studies.

Hosted by Heather Williams, Lecturer in the Defence Studies Department and CSSS, and Professor Wyn Bowen, Head of School for the School of Security Studies, the judging panel was made up of a line-up of arms control heavyweights.

This included retired Lieutenant General Evgeny Buzhinsky, Chair of the executive board for the Russian Center for Policy Studies (PIR Center), H.E. Marjolijn van Deelen, former Dutch Ambassador to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and current Special Envoy for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament with the European External Action Service, Dr. Renata Dwan, Director of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, Ambassador Dr. Bonnie Jenkins, Founder and Chair of Women of Colour Advancing Peace and Security, and Professor of International Relations Li Bin from Tsinghua University.

Each finalist had just five minutes to pitch the judges their idea for the future of arms control. Thomas Cheney was crowned the overall champion for his proposed anti-satellite test ban (ASAT) convention. Runner-up Jon Tishman made a strong pitch for a convention limiting the proliferation of anti-tank missiles. Haneen Khalid’s model arms control negotiations pitch won the audience vote for quality of delivery.

It was a tight and fast-paced competition with some outstanding pitches, including Jakob Hake’s vision for a convention prohibiting cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, Haneen Khalid’s model for building arms control negotiation expertise amongst early career professionals, and Johanna Trittenbach’s humanitarian-driven legal approach to emergent military technology and advanced weaponry.

Watch the full recording of the contest on YouTube.

Project status: Ongoing