King's College London

Examining attitudes in Poland during the Ukrainian refugee crisis, researchers found host populations significantly overestimated how many refugees intended to stay indefinitely. On average, the Polish public overestimated the proportion of Ukrainians planning to settle permanently by about 21 per cent.

These misperceptions have a direct impact on public policy preferences. The research found that a higher perceived share of permanent settlers was strongly associated with lower support for humanitarian initiatives, including free schooling for children, unrestricted work permits, and equal access to welfare.

However, the study found that these attitudes can be successfully changed by presenting accurate information. During a survey experiment, providing respondents with factual data about refugees' actual settlement plans led to meaningful shifts in opinion. When citizens who had overestimated the figures were given the correct numbers, their support for inclusive refugee policies increased. Conversely, policy support decreased among the minority who originally underestimated the figures.

Because those who overestimate permanent settlement outnumber those who underestimate it by more than three-to-one, correcting the facts results in an overall net positive effect on public support. The shift in public opinion was most pronounced regarding welfare rights, suggesting that native populations' concerns about long-term fiscal burdens are heavily inflated by these settlement misperceptions.

The findings were revealed in a new working paper co-authored by Dr Marco Giani and Dr Krzysztof Krakowski, from the Department of Political Economy at King’s, with Dr Silvana Tarlea (Zurich University of Applied Sciences).