The briefing note explores the potential impact on the Government and on pensioners of moving from a triple lock to a double lock. It also explores the impact of a potential short-term smoothing mechanism which would reduce the level paid out on State Pensions in 2021 and also help ensure that any spikes in inflation following economic recovery do not result in a dramatic increase in the State Pensions Bill.

Findings of the report are based on stochastic simulation models developed by Sergio Maffra, PhD Student in the Department of Mathematics, and Professor Teemu Pennanen, Professor in Financial Mathematics at King's.