The module is aimed at to officials with an interest in policy planning, strategy, forward-studies and horizon-scanning on socio-political and foreign policy issues where uncertainty tends to be higher. It also offers more widely applicable lessons about the limits and potential of expert knowledge within the policy-process. In introduces participants to probabilistic forecasting and scenario building as key approaches in the broader field of Foresight.

The module harnesses insights from the growing institutionalisation and professionalisation of work within government, business and NGOs related to Foresight. It will provide participants with key insights from the state of the art in academic research in this area, including how individuals and organisations may improve their thinking about the future to improve prevention, preparedness, resilience and strategy.

Course content

Week 1: How and why does foresight matter to policymaking?

The overarching question for this week is how and why does foresight matter to decision-makers in government? The ultimate aim of foresight is to make policy-making and government as a whole more “foresighted” and more “future-proof”, making it more likely that harm is avoided and opportunities are realised.

Week 2: Challenges of forecasting

In this second week we will focus on the challenges of probabilistic forecasting in governments, whether near or longer term. We will look at different forms of probabilistic forecasting, introduce and explain key terminology such as uncertainty.

Week 3: Building a competent scenario

In the final week we turn to scenario work—looking at alternative futures as an approach to foresight. We will examine how it different from probabilistic forecasting or indeed prediction, even though it may draw on some aspects of it.

Learning outcomes

Upon completion of this module, students will :

• Have increased accuracy and relevance on their own analytical judgments about policy-relevant futures, and be able to communicate this knowledge to others.
• Understand and employ core tools to commission foresight and horizon-scanning exercises with internal or external experts.

This short course is for mid-career professionals. Standard entry requirements are a 2:1 degree plus 3 years of relevant work experience. Applicants without a 2:1 or higher degree are welcome to apply and typically require 5+ years of relevant work experience.

Assessment

One written assignment, plus participation in webinars and discussion forums.

Our modules offer high levels of interaction with regular points of assessment and feedback. Each four week module is worth five Master's level academic credits and includes three webinars with a King's lecturer and peer group of global professionals.

Format: Fully online, plus 3 x 1-hour weekly webinars, plus one optional induction webinar in the week before the start of teaching and an optional assessment webinar in Week 4.

This module has been designed specifically for an online audience. It uses a range of interactive activities to support learning including discussion forums, online readings, interactive lectures videos and online tutorials.

Tuition fees may be subject to additional increases in subsequent years of study, in line with King’s terms and conditions.