King's College London

Assembling Certainty is an inquiry into the ethical and epistemic implications of using Machine Learning (ML) in ‘open source investigations’ into civilian casualty allegations in war zones. Combining backgrounds in software studies, digital sociology, and investigative practices, the project is led by Dr David Young (Digital Humanities, King’s College London) with Dr Josh Bowsher (Law, Politics & Sociology, University of Sussex) and the casualty recording watchdog Airwars.

Over the past decade, open source intelligence (OSINT) has become an important investigative framework for civilian casualty recorders. This typically involves a deliberative process of assembling large quantities of diverse (and potentially contradictory) text and image content posted on online platforms. However, the pace of commentary and challenges of verifying content pertaining to a particular allegation means that using OSINT effectively is a growing challenge, with some organisations and newsrooms experimenting with ML to collect, analyse, and visualise greater quantities of data.

The project therefore asks what kinds of data, sources, and practices are valorised by researchers and investigators aiming to assemble 'more certain' accounts of military violence amidst the informational fog of war. Additionally, it will explore how ML might reconfigure how "expertise" and "facts" are understood in OSINT work. To do so, the project adopts a "critical technical practice" approach to develop an array of media forensic tools with the Airwars team to examine and reflect on the limits of ML and its implications for their workflows. The findings will inform a guidance document, co-authored with Airwars and shared with their networks, setting out new standards concerning the ethical use of OSINT and ML in civilian casualty monitoring.