Historical perspective on EU Referendum
Professor Bogdanor and Lord Butler take historical perspective on EU Referendum
Professor Vernon Bogdanor, Research Professor at the Institute of Contemporary British History, and Lord Butler of Brockwell, former Private Secretary to Harold Wilson, spoke to an audience at King’s College London on Monday (09 May), considering the historical context of the EU referendum in comparison to 1975, as the date of the 2016 vote draws closer.
The referendum in June is only the third plebiscite to have taken place throughout the whole of the United Kingdom and in 1975 this was the first time it had ever happened. At the time, voters were not able show their opinion on the European Communities (as it was then known) through their General Election vote as all major party leaders were pro-Europe.
Professor Bogdanor detailed in his speech some of the political context leading up to 1975 and compared this to the situation today, including the party rifts triggered and cultivated by European issues – something which will be familiar to most voters in 2016 also.
The split of collective responsibility seen this year was also something seen for the first time 1975. However, this in itself comes alongside further difficulties for the parties. Professor Bogdanor explained: ‘The question remains, the Labour party split in 1980. Did that split of collective responsibility have an impact, as ministers had disagreed in public?’
Professor Bogdanor also explained that it was thought a decision on something so fundamental by Parliament alone lacked legitimacy: ‘A referendum gives constitutional protection against the powers of parliament being transferred against the will of the people.’
The overwhelming majority in favour of remaining in Europe seen in 1975 (with a vote count of 2:1 to remain) was thought to be influenced partly by a fear of what would happen if we left. It was also influenced by other issues of ‘substance’ that were of concern to the British public, such as food prices.
Professor Bogdanor also suggested that in 1975, voters were far more likely to adhere to the views of those politicians they were used to following than they are today.
Lord Butler, in response to Professor Bogdanor, added some personal reflections from his time as Private Secretary to the Prime Minister during the 1975 referendum. He stated that he felt Harold Wilson had three clear objectives in calling the vote: to resolve the difficulties within the Labour party, to secure improvement in the European agreement and to keep Britain in the European Communities.
He also stressed the differences in the political context now as there were many other social and political issues high on the agenda in the 1970s such as unemployment, economic difficulties and the wake of the 1974 coal strikes, as well as the fact that membership was relatively new at this time.
Nowadays, the EU question is one of the highest political issues on the agenda. Professor Bogdanor suggested that leaving the EU may settle the issue for a long time time come but that if we remain then unrest around these issues will continue. Lord Butler disagreed, stating that he didn’t think ‘anyone will want to have another referendum for a long time to come.’
The speakers also considered possible outcomes, stating that far right parties may benefit, no matter the vote, and that the process by which we withdraw, if the vote is to leave, will be long and fraught with difficulties along the way.
Notes to editors
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