Prior to that collision, much of the sector worked on the premise that space is ‘big’ and the risk of collision small. But that view is now being challenged. In fact, the potential for collisions is growing as the UK and others launch an increasing number of satellites – particularly smaller cubesats and mega-constellations - in the already-crowded Low Earth Orbit (LEO).
The US Departments of Commerce and Defence are seeking to develop an effective approach to Space Traffic Management (STM) – aiming for safer space operations today and in future. The scale of challenge shouldn’t be underestimated: designing, developing and implementing a STM system entails significant policy, legal and technical issues at both national and international level.
Effective STM requires better understanding of what is going on in space through Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) systems. These comprise: radars to track objects near Earth; telescopes to track distant objects; and data centres to store and analyse terabytes of data. The current US system uses a global network of defence, intelligence, civil and commercial assets, along with data sharing arrangements with a number of countries. To achieve better collision avoidance, future STM systems must have improved capability, with more sensors tracking smaller debris. In 2020, the US launched Space Fence, a new SST asset able to track a larger number of small objects than previous systems.
However, STM is not just about technology. Operators and control centres have to be able to analyse and share information across international boundaries, creating a clear need for international standards, rules and processes. International agreement on some form of intergovernmental authority with powers to set and enforce standards is needed, but that appears a long way off.
Through extensive international collaboration, the International Organization of Standardization and the Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee have devised debris mitigation measures. However, these have not adapted to the growing number of mega-constellations which really challenge the ‘25 year rule’ recommending satellites in LEO be deorbited no later than 25 years after the end of operations. In the face of companies launching thousands of satellites into an already congested region of space, many argue 25 years is far too long to minimise collision risks. The UN has also set out long term sustainability guidelines, but these are purely voluntary and adoption has been patchy.
STM and the UK
The UK has a range of military and civilian radars and telescopes and the RAF operates the Space Operations Centre (SPOC). However, these are only some elements of an overall STM system. Fundamentally, the UK needs to understand and be able to manage the risks to its own satellites, particularly in light of the OneWeb investment.
The UK does not have an Orbital Debris Programme Office like NASA. This raises the question of whether the UK government has a sufficiently expert understanding of the debris issue. The MOD and UK Space Agency (UKSA) recently signed an agreement to work together on Space Domain Awareness and UKSA provided £1m funding for SST innovation projects. Some UK researchers are also examining space environmental sustainability, such as Southampton University, University of Edinburgh, Warwick University and through the GNOSIS initiative.
However, these efforts represent a tiny fraction of overall UK space R&D budgets and do not form part of a comprehensive STM programme. In contrast, Australia, with a space sector valued at less than a fifth of the UK’s, is planning to invest £1billion in building space monitoring capabilities.
UK Space, the UK’s industrial body, is exploring what a National Air Traffic Control System (NATS) for space might look like, but clearly this has to be situated within an international context. In December 2020, the UN adopted a UK-sponsored Resolution to establish norms and rules for responsible behaviours in space. The US has recently announced that they want to see these become binding.
The STM debate is only just starting – with implications for the nation and defence. No doubt the current proposal of a joint civil/defence SPOC will begin to deliver an enhanced range of SST services, but will it be the step change that the increasing congestion in LEO demands?
The creation of Space Command and the government’s aim to develop sovereign launch capability will hopefully lead the National Space Council to make this a central priority in the UK’s National Space Strategy and allocate sufficient budget at the Comprehensive Spending Review to build a sovereign STM system fit for the 21st Century.
As yet, though, the UK does not have a credible and robust STM system that can meet defence, commercial and civil space requirements. Given the rapidly increasing risks of collision, greater urgency and clear policy direction is needed from government to address the challenge without it, the risks to Britain’s space assets will become ever greater.
Allen Antrobus, is a Director at Airbus Defence and Space and manages the Military Space account. Prior to joining Airbus, Allen worked for the UK Space Agency where he was responsible for leading the UK’s input into the EU Space Surveillance and Tracking initiative and undertook the role of deputy-chair for the international steering board.
Katherine Courtney, is a Strategic Advisor, Non-Executive Director, former Chief Executive of the UK Space Agency and Chair of the Global Network on Sustainability in Space.
This piece was published by the Freeman Air and Space Institute, Kings College London