King's experts on Brexit
King's experts comment on ongoing Brexit negotiations following Theresa May's Brexit speech on 17 January 2017
Dr Andrew Blick, Institute of Contemporary British History
'On closer examination, the statement makes the break look less 'clean' than we are being encouraged to believe. Payments for access to the single market look likely to continue in some form, for example. Furthermore, there is a prospect of interim arrangements in unspecified areas lasting for unspecified lengths of time. From a constitutional perspective, this negotiation is being treated as largely about trade. In fact, it will have immense consequences for the legal and political system of the United Kingdom.'
Professor Takis Tridimas, The Dickson Poon School of Law
'In her long awaited speech on Brexit, today the Prime Minster outlined the Government’s strategy and provided a list of priorities for the forthcoming negotiations for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU. The UK will not remain a member of the single market. The most important aspect of the Prime Minister’s speech from the legal perspective is, perhaps, that the UK will not seek to fit into one of the existing models of cooperation, for example, by being part of the EEA Agreement, but seek a bespoke trading arrangement with the EU founded in one or more international agreements. Some difficult negotiations lie ahead.'
Professor Anand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs, and Director of UK in a Changing Europe
'Mrs May’s ambition for the UK to be able to enjoy tariff free trade with the EU whilst enjoying the freedom to sign its own trade treaties implies a subtle and complex relationship with the customs union. Her ability to achieve the ambitions she set out will ultimately hinge on what her partners are willing to give her, and whether they can successfully complete the Article 50 negotiations beforehand.
'More broadly, we can now start to think about the substantive impact of Brexit on our country. The Prime Minister stated that she wanted Brexit to result in a Britain that is stronger, fairer and prosperous. But to know if these ambitions are being achieved, we need a framework against which to monitor and measure them. We will be publishing our outline ‘four economic tests for Brexit’ later this month.'
Professor Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics and Public Policy and senior fellow, The UK in a Changing Europe
'Behind Theresa May’s rhetoric, two contradictions remain. First, her rhetorical claim that we can build a truly "global Britain" is incompatible with her top policy priority of reducing immigration from both inside and outside the EU, including skilled workers and students. Second, optimistic references to trade deals with third countries are all very well - but those are a long way off. The civil service is focused on the minutiae of upcoming EU negotiations. Mrs May's suggestion that we want an "implementation phase" will make that task even more complicated.'
“It is welcome that the Prime Minister has fleshed out her vision of what Brexit is. But she didn't explain how exactly Brexit - or her version of Brexit - will make us stronger and fairer. Will Brexit mean wages start rising again at pre-crisis rates? Will it enable the government to make up some of the massive funding gap facing the NHS? Will it improve opportunity and social mobility for young people? If so, how and when? The next step must be for the government to explain just how its priorities in the negotiations relate to these laudable objectives.”
Reaction to the EU Referendum results from experts at King's College London:
Podcast - Does the UK face global political turmoil in the wake of the Brexit vote? Featuring Dr Ramon Pacheco Pardo, European and International Studies
Professor Jonathan Grant, Director of the Policy Institute, for E Sharp Magazine:
'I am increasingly of the view that this is becoming a second order issue. The sun will continue to rise, people will fall in and out of love, and our daily routines will plod on. What I am really worried about is how the tone of the referendum debate will reverberate into every sinew of our society in a way that will be more damaging to our social fabric than the technical niceties of being in or out of Europe.'
For the full blog post from Professor Grant, visit the E Sharp Magazine website.
Professor Anand Menon, Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs, King’s College London, and Director of UK in a Changing Europe:
'The Prime Minister had little choice but to step down given that he had campaigned so openly and so passionately for a cause that was defeated by the British people. I think he did the right thing by the country in saying he would stay on until September. The last thing the country needs is uncertainty when markets are in turmoil and no one knows what will happen next.’
For the post-referendum statement from UK in a Changing Europe, visit their website.
Dr Andrew Blick, Institute of Contemporary British History, King’s College London:
'This is an historic moment and represents a crucial decision about Britain’s future role. But it is surely not the end of our complex engagement with the European mainland and the EU itself. The precise manner of our exit is uncertain and will inevitably be complex and vexed. At present, there may be a majority within the UK Parliament - the supposedly 'sovereign' body within our constitution - for remaining. However, it will be difficult to resist the will of the people, however flawed a decision making device some may see referendums as being.
'David Cameron will now be remembered chiefly for how his premiership ended. The European issue has plagued him throughout and was something which he really wanted to avoid or put on the back burner- but which has now engulfed his leadership.
'In terms of a leadership contest – will there be a single candidate or a contest? And from which camp will that person come? Depending on that outcome, the other issue will be whether, with a small majority, do they actually have enough support to form a government? It takes us into very interesting constitutional territory and triggering early general elections and electing new Parliaments is harder than it once was, since the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. A general election might not produce a convenient result anyway, and could confirm the deadlock.
'But it also has to be remembered that the Labour Party has not had a great night either – and there will now be some serious questions to be asked about their leadership too.’
Dr Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Department of European & International Studies, King’s College London:
'The EU's answer to Brexit has to be as clear as possible. Brussels has to reach an agreement with London that shows that leaving the EU has its consequences. It is not unthinkable that European leaders will press to keep free movement of people and seek to move the EU's financial centre to Frankfurt or Paris in exchange for a trade agreement with the UK. Any sign of weakness by European negotiators could open a Pandora's box. Austria, Netherlands or Sweden could seize this opportunity to demand their own referendums. Like it or not, EU leaders have little option but to make an example of the consequences of leaving the EU.
'At the same time, however, EU leaders have to understand the message that has been delivered to them. They need to design better policies to support the working class, implement the necessary measures to minimise the effects of immigration on basic social services at the local level, and stop thinking that more integration is the solution to all EU problems. Otherwise, support for populist movements and parties will continue to increase across Europe. Without a proper answer to the worries of their citizens, European leaders might see themselves dealing with more crises from those seeking the end of the EU.'
Professor Andrea Biondi, Director, Centre of European Law, King’s College London:
'The long and winding road. This is what now confronts the UK and the other 27 EU member states. An intricate process of renegotiations, of disentangling Britain's position from numerous international agreements signed under the EU umbrella, some very complex calculations on how to redistribute EU funding and a process which will have an impact on many personal lives, on career choices, on the kind of education future generations are going to get. In the coming months and years, we are sure, ingenious solutions will be proposed to accommodate the new UK position. It remains however to be seen if there is will – on the other side – to open that door.’
Professor Takis Tridimas, Director, Centre of European Law, King's College London:
'In the EU referendum of 23 June 2016, the majority voted in favour of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. The vote will have profound political, economic and legal implications in Europe and beyond. It is expected to trigger a process towards the withdrawal of the UK and the negotiation of a new relationship with the EU. The legal aspects arising are highly complex and span the fields of domestic, EU, and international law. It is not an exaggeration to say that ‘Brexit’ gives rise to the most intricate legal problems ever encountered in the history of European legal systems.'
Professor Alexander Turk, Centre of European Law, King's College London:
'The legal consequences will unfold in the coming weeks and months. Some important decisions will concern the timing of the notification under Article 50 TFEU, which triggers the 2-year time limit for negotiation; the extent of access to the single market and the demands of the EU for such access; the rights of residence of EU nationals in the UK and UK nationals in the EU; the extent to which the UK refrains from breaching EU law during the negotiation period (eg. by amending the EC Act 1972 or limiting free movement of EU citizens) and the consequences if it does not; the disentanglement of research degree grants, farm subsidies, structural fund grants etc. The list is long and negotiations will no doubt be complex and it is not clear what deal will emerge at the end.'
Dr Benjamin Kienzle, Defence Studies, King’s College London:
'The most important security implications of the Brexit will be in the long-term. On the one hand, the UK will leave the forum where many of the most relevant security decisions in Europe are taken. Likewise, cooperation with like-minded countries in an institutionalized setting like the EU tends to be much more efficient in the long-term as opposed to new negotiations. Many of today’s major security issues are global in nature. Transnational crime, the proliferation of WMD, climate change, energy security or the rise of China are issues that affect in one way or another most nation states, including the UK. And these issues cannot be addressed effectively by individual nation states, even the most powerful ones. On the other hand, it is also important to emphasize that the other EU member states are going to lose one of its most powerful member states in terms of military capability, intelligence gathering and diplomatic clout. This will clearly weaken the EU on a global stage.'
Click here for more comment, podcasts, videos and articles from King's academics made in the run up to the EU Referendum.
Images: European Union Flags 2' by Thijs ter Haar Follow. Licensed under creative commons via Flickr and 'MPD01605' - http://www.flickr.com/photos/mpd01605/6755068753/in/photostream/, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=18364047