INTEL Publications

Below are publications of team members that are relevant to the project.

INTEL team publications

• N. Ikani and C.O. Meyer (2023). ‘The underlying causes of strategic surprise in EU foreign policy: a post-mortem investigation of the Arab uprisings and the Ukraine–Russia crisis of 2013/14.’ European Security, Vol 32, No 2, pp. 270-293.
• Meyer, C, Michaels, E, Ikani, N, Guttmann, A & Goodman, M (eds) 2022, Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise. Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh. The book was positively reviewed in the International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence, Intelligence and National Security, Journal of Intelligence History, and Diplomacy and Statecraft. Read more here.
• Guttmann, A (2022) The Rise of ISIS as a Partial Surprise: An Open-Source Analysis on the Threat Evolution and Early Warnings in the United Kingdom, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence. https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2022.2095543.
• Michaels, E (2021) How surprising was ISIS’ rise to power for the German intelligence community? Reconstructing estimates of likelihood prior to the fall of Mosul, Intelligence and National Security, DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2021.1985206
• Crofts-Gibbons, K & Ikani, N 2021, Timeline of Expert Claims and Responses for Ukraine crisis involving UK.
• Ikani, N & Albulescu, AM 2021, Timeline of Expert Claims and Responses for Ukraine crisis involving Germany and EU.
• Ikani, N 2021, Timeline of Expert Claims and Responses for the Arab Uprisings involving UK.
• Ikani, N & Albulescu, AM 2021, Timeline of Expert Claims and Responses for the Arab Uprisings involving Germany and the EU.
• Michaels, E & Karimi, B 2021, Overview of expert claims and EU policy responses to ISIS’ rise to power in Iraq and Syria. King's College London.
• Guttmann, A & Karimi, B 2021, Timeline of UK Media and Middle East Experts’ Anticipation of the rise of ISIS and UK government reactions.
• Meyer, C, Michaels, E, Guttmann, A & Albulescu, AM 2021, What lessons to learn for intelligence production and use in German foreign policy from ISIS’ rise to power and the Russian actions in Ukraine in 2013/2014? The Policy Institute at King's.
• Eva Michaels, Bahar Karimi (2021) Overview of expert claims and EU policy responses to ISIS' rise to power in Iraq and Syria. 
• Eva Michaels (2021) Germany’s anticipation of and response to ISIS’ rise to power:overview of open-source knowledge claims and policy responses.
• Learning the Right Lessons for the Next Pandemic: How to Design Public Inquiries into the UK Government’s Handling of COVID-19. Christoph Meyer, Nikki Ikani, Mauricio Avendano and Ann Kelly. King's College London, 2020
• Nikki Ikani, Aviva Guttmann & Christoph O. Meyer (2020) An analytical framework for postmortems of European foreign policy: should decision-makers have been surprised?, Intelligence and National Secuirty, DOI 10.1080/02684527.2019.1704384

Relevant publications of Professor Christoph Meyer

• Christoph Meyer (2023) ‘How to prove that a harmful event was avoidable? Theorising Epistemological Challenges in Post-Event Investigations and Postmortems’. Risks, Hazards and Crisis in Public Policy, online first, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rhc3.12281
• Christoph Meyer (2021) Europe has no excuse for letting Russia surprise it again. Politico EU.
• Christoph Meyer (2020) Warning about conflicts and pandemics and how to get heard by decision makers. PeaceLab.
• Nikki Ikani, Aviva Guttmann & Christoph O. Meyer (2020) An analytical framework for postmortems of European foreign policy: should decision-makers have been surprised?, Intelligence and National Secuirty, DOI 10.1080/02684527.2019.1704384
• Christoph Meyer, Chiara De Franco, and Florian Otto (2019) Warning about War: Conflict, Persuasion and Foreign Policy. Cambridge University Press.
• Meyer, C. O with G. Kurtz, (2018) 'Beyond wishful thinking and technocracy: conflict prevention as science, craft, and art’. Global Affairs
• Meyer, C. O with F. Otto, (2016) How to Warn: ‘Outside-in Warnings’ of Western Governments about Violent Conflict and Mass Atrocities, Media, War & Conflict, Vol. 9, No 2, pp. 198-216
• Meyer, C. O, 2016 ‘Over- and Under-reaction to Transboundary Threats: Two Sides of a Misprinted Coin?’, Journal of European Public Policy, Vol. 23, No 5, 735-52.
• Meyer, C. O. (2015) ‘Early Warning about Violent Conflict: Better Intelligence for Early Action’.  Policy brief presented at a public workshop on Intelligent Foreign Policy on 14 December 2015  in Stockholm, organised jointly by the EU Institute for Security Studies (EU-ISS) and the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI). 
• De Franco, Chiara and Meyer, Christoph O. (eds.) 2011. Forecasting, Warning and Responding to Transnational Risks. Basingstoke: Palgrave McMillan 

Relevant publications of Professor Michael Goodman

• ‘British Intelligence and the Fear of a Soviet Attack on Allied Communications’ Cryptologia 40: 1 (January 2016), pp.15-32 [co-authored with Huw Dylan]
• The Official History of the Joint Intelligence Committee, Volume I: From the Approach of the Second World to the Suez Crisis, 1936-56. (Routledge, 2014)
• Spying on the World: The Joint Intelligence Committee and Events which Shaped History, 1936-2013 (Edinburgh University Press, 2014) [co-authored with Richard Aldrich and Rory Cormac]
• ‘Applying the Historical Lessons of Surprise Attack to the Cyber Domain: The Example of the United Kingdom’.  In E.O.Goldman & J.Arquilla (eds).  Cyber Analogies.  (Naval Postgraduate School, 2014). pp.15-25.
• ‘Avoiding Surprise: The Nicoll Report’.  In R.Dover & M.S.Goodman (eds). Learning from the Secret Past: Cases in British Intelligence History. (Georgetown University Press, 2011), pp.265-92

Relevant publications of Dr Nikki Ikani

• Ikani, Nikki. 17 December 2020: Europe should be prepared for an Arab Spring re-run. Euractiv.com.
• Nikki Ikani, Aviva Guttmann & Christoph O. Meyer (2020) An analytical framework for postmortems of European foreign policy: should decision-makers have been surprised?, Intelligence and National Secuirty, DOI 10.1080/02684527.2019.1704384
• Ikani, Nikki. 30 May 2019. The European Choice in Libya. EU Observer.
• Ikani, Nikki. 2019. “Change and Continuity in the European Neighbourhood Policy: The Ukraine Crisis as a Critical Juncture.” Geopolitics 24 (1): 20–50.

Relevant publications of Dr Aviva Guttmann

• Guttmann, Aviva (2022) The Rise of ISIS as a Partial Surprise: An Open-Source Analysis on the Threat Evolution and Early Warnings in the United Kingdom, International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence. https://doi.org/10.1080/08850607.2022.2095543.
• Nikki Ikani, Aviva Guttmann & Christoph O. Meyer (2020) An analytical framework for postmortems of European foreign policy: should decision-makers have been surprised?, Intelligence and National Secuirty, DOI 10.1080/02684527.2019.1704384
• Guttmann, Aviva (2020) Islamic State could be about to hit back - and the world is paying little attention. The Conversation. 
• Guttmann, Aviva. 2018. “Combatting Terror in Europe: Euro-Israeli Counterterrorism Intelligence Cooperation in the Club de Berne (1971-1972),” Intelligence and National Security, 33, 2, 158-175.
• Guttmann, Aviva. 2018. “Secret Wires Across the Mediterranean: the Club de Berne, Euro-Israeli Counterterrorism, and Swiss ‘Neutrality’,” International History Review, 40, 4, 814-833.
• Guttmann, Aviva. 2018. The Origins of International Counterterrorism. Switzerland at the Forefront of Crisis Negotiations, Multilateral Diplomacy, and Intelligence Cooperation (1969-1977), Leiden/Boston, Brill Publishers, ISBN (Print): 9789004276642, https://brill.com/abstract/title/35172