But while the impact of Germany or Italy seizing bases there – especially the port of Diego Suarez, referred to as ‘the Scapa Flow of the Indian Ocean’ (comparing it to Britain’s main wartime naval base in the Orkney Islands) – would have been enormous, the likelihood of their being able to do so was distinctly low.
Despite the occasional hint from (often questionable) sources that some Axis plan was afoot, core British interests could be achieved simply by routine Royal Navy patrols denying the enemy use of the island. Churchill might have yearned for the more ambitious aim of controlling it, as he did to disastrous effect with the other key Vichy colony at Dakar, where a 1940 attempt to seize the port failed badly, but the forces that would have been required – and even more, the shipping to transport them – were more urgently needed elsewhere.
The picture changed, however, as Japan became increasingly threatening. The benefits for it of taking bases in Madagascar were even clearer and its ability to deploy and sustain forces there was far greater than was the case with Germany or Italy. Further, the British government became concerned at the possibility that, rather than Japan needing to conduct an invasion to seize Diego Suarez, Vichy France could invite them in, as they had in Indochina (thereby dooming Malaya and Singapore).
Yet this still did not lead to Britain prioritising Madagascar over other commitments. Rising concern about Japan had even greater implications for India and Ceylon (modern-day Sri Lanka); the threat to Madagascar raised it as a concern but did not lift it to the top of the list. The attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941 reinforced the impression that Japan ‘could take bold action when they had decided to’ but reinforcing India remained the priority. It was only in March 1942, with further Japanese thrusts into the Indian Ocean, that the War Cabinet decided to launch an expedition against Madagascar – and even then, it was opposed by Alan Brooke (Chief of the Imperial General Staff and Churchill’s most influential military advisor). The rationale was to deny Japan a base from which its forces could cut off essential sea communications, while also providing an additional naval base should the British Eastern Fleet be forced to retreat from Ceylon. The War Cabinet decided that this prize was worth the risk involved in a short delay to reinforcing India.