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An image of the Brazilian Amazon with a drawing of a tree and the words COP30 on it ;

10 years after the Paris Agreement, what to expect from Brazil's COP30?

Ripple Effects
Dr Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos

Director of King’s Brazil Institute

04 July 2025

“Paris was a time of international agreement; Belém is the time of implementation.” Correa do Lago, Secretary for Climate, Energy and Environment at Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and President of COP30

On Monday, 23 June 2025, I participated in a Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) event at Kew Gardens during London Climate Action Week. During the event, Minister Correa do Lago, Secretary for Climate, Energy and Environment at Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and President of COP30, stated that the agreements made in Paris will be implemented in Belém. He emphasized that COP30 will be a summit of local governments, civil society, academia, and social movements - the people who are ultimately responsible for putting climate commitments into action.

Brazil Week 2025 directly engaged with this vision. Although the events took place simultaneously and I can’t say one inspired the other, the central idea was shared: to truly implement international agreements, we must listen to local governments and civil society. Belém is well positioned in this conversation.

The theme of Brazil Week 2025 was “Subnational Governments and the Global South: The Rise of New Players in a Changing Geopolitical Order.” The focus was on the need to reframe global governance, which has historically been dominated by Western powers. Until recently, climate agreements, peace negotiations, and financial summits were almost exclusively led by nation-states, often those in the OECD or G7. In the past decade, however, new institutions have begun to challenge this framework. Initiatives such as IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa), along with Brazil’s hosting of major global events like the G20 and upcoming climate summits, have played a role in reshaping international diplomacy. On the subnational level, cities and states have launched independent campaigns to influence environmental policy - indeed, the Amazon Summit of Local Governments took place as early as 2009 in Manaus just before COP 15 in Copenhagen.

It is no longer acceptable to talk about climate change while ignoring the voices of those most affected by it, particularly when these communities are often the least responsible for the problem. COP30, hosted in Belém, brings the world closer than ever to the Amazon rainforest and the homes of numerous Indigenous peoples. This summit is expected to significantly increase the participation of Indigenous representatives. Local governments have also organised to assert their presence in climate discussions, including in areas such as technical capacity to implement nationally agreed goals.

With these concerns in mind, I organised a panel to bring together a diversity of perspectives: from the Global South, subnational governments, Indigenous voices, business, finance, biodiversity, and media. That’s right, no fewer than eight experts, including an environmental secretary from one of Brazil’s largest cattle-producing states, gathered to discuss the future of COP30.

Our speakers included Bruno Quick, Technical Director at SEBRAE Nacional; Dr Claudia Sarmento, MSCA Global Fellow at King’s College London and PUC-Rio; Dr Lia Kajiki, Director of the Amazon Charitable Trust; Dr Anit Mukherjee, Senior Fellow at ORF America; Fernanda Gimenes, PhD Researcher at the London School of Economics and Engagement Manager at IFACC; Barbara Abrahão, Doctoral Candidate at the University of Oxford; and Artur Falcette, Deputy Secretary for the Environment of Mato Grosso do Sul.

Key questions included: What does it mean to host COP30 in the Amazon, and what makes this conference different from those that came before? How can subnational governments attract international climate financing despite limitations in scale, speed, and technical capacity? What models can enable sustainable growth while limiting deforestation and agricultural expansion through investments in the bioeconomy? What specific outcomes from COP30 could help unlock large-scale investments in nature? How can innovative finance and community-driven initiatives deliver lasting climate results? How can researchers, civil society, and youth shape the COP process and enhance its legitimacy? Could COP30 be a turning point for Brazil’s re-emergence as a global environmental leader? How can we ensure this leadership is substantive and not just symbolic?

The lessons from this discussion were powerful. One takeaway was that agribusiness must be part of the conversation. Secretary Artur highlighted that in Brazil, most preserved areas are not within national parks but on private lands, in his state, over 90% of the territory is owned by the cattle and agriculture sectors. This brings us to the idea of a new economic model. Instead of figuring out how to make current models more sustainable, we must ask how to create entirely new ones, models that consider the pharmacological and ecotourism value of our forests, as Director Bruno pointed out. From an Indigenous perspective, the challenge of climate finance needs rethinking. Rather than evaluating carbon credits through global economic standards, we should start with a local question: how much is needed for a ribeirinho, Indigenous, or quilombola community to live well in a standing forest? And based on that, how much should countries be willing to pay to ensure those communities can maintain that life? Barbara raised this profound question, which reframes the entire debate.

Dr Anit concluded with a reflection on Brazil’s potential to lead by example. It is not easy for any developing country to move away from fossil fuels or forge new economic pathways, but Brazil already holds a prominent role in environmental preservation within a global system that lacks decisive leadership on climate. COP30 offers a vital opportunity for Brazil to shape the future of international climate action, as Lia also highlighted. With the summit taking place in Belém, at the heart of the Amazon, Brazil assumes both a strategic and symbolic position in the global climate conversation.

The debate is no longer simply about balancing environmental preservation with economic growth, it is now widely understood that there can be no lasting growth without protecting the environment. Climate change is already generating economic losses across the globe. The challenge ahead lies in embracing new economic models with nature-based solutions, as Fernanda argued. Leadership for those models no longer comes solely from a few voices at the table, but from a diverse and growing multitude, often led by youth, engaging through various platforms and movements, as Dr Claudia enlightened. The true test is to ensure all voices are heard, even as the final decisions still rest in the hands of a few with the power to sign on the dotted lines.

Dr Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos

Dr Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos is a leading scholar on the socio-political dimensions of mining and its environmental legacies in Latin America. Currently the Director of the King's Brazil Institute at King’s, she previously led the Brazilian Studies Programme at the University of Oxford. Her research critically examines how mining intersects with cultural heritage, local governance, and environmental justice, particularly in Brazil. In her article “Trading Time and Space: Grassroots Negotiations in a Brazilian Mining District,” she explores the complex negotiations between mining companies, local communities, and policy councils, highlighting how participatory governance can both empower and intimidate communities facing environmental degradation and economic dependency. Additionally, her book “The Politics of Memory,” she delves into the colonial and racialised histories of the mining town Ouro Preto, arguing for a more inclusive recognition of mining’s environmental and social harms in public narratives. Dr de Souza Santos’s work is pivotal in rethinking extractivism and its implications for climate justice, offering insights into how historical and contemporary mining practices shape environmental policies and community resilience.

Ripple Effects

Ripple Effects is the blog from King's Climate & Sustainability, showcasing perspectives from across the King's community.

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