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Andy Sumner

The Growth, Inequality and Poverty (GrIP) Project

The Growth, Inequality and Poverty (GrIP) Project

Peter Edward (Newcastle University Business School) and Andy Sumner, King’s College London

Summary

This project uses a global model of consumption, output and distribution to explore changes in global and national poverty and inequality, and distributional patterns of growth since the early 1980s. The model is built from the World Bank’s PovcalNet and World Development Indicators, the UNU-WIDER World Income Inequality Database, the UN Population Division’s World Population Prospects, and the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts.

The project seeks to interrogate trends and patterns in the scale and distribution of benefits from economic growth. The model has been built to allow extensive sensitivity testing of the impact on estimates and forecasts of global and sub-global poverty and inequality under various different widely-adopted assumptions and approaches to interpreting and using the underlying datasets. Based on these analyses, a number of original approaches have also been incorporated to improve the comparability and consistency of analysis across regions and time-periods. Using the model, we investigate differences in patterns of economic growth across multiple aggregations (including national, regional and ‘stages of development’ aggregations) to address questions such as:

  • What has happened to the scale and distribution of global poverty and inequality?
  • What are the possible trends and levels of global poverty and inequality in the future?
  • How much difference do assumptions make to historic trends, levels and patterns, and future projections of global poverty and inequality?
  • How efficient is global growth as a route to end poverty, and what could have happened to global poverty and inequality under different conditions of growth and redistribution?
  • How do national patterns of growth differ?

The model has also been used to inform the work and publications of various charities and government agencies, and we are open to enquiries from such organisations as well as from academics.

Publications

Edward, P. and Sumner, A. (2018) ‘Global Poverty and Inequality: Are the Revised Estimates Open to an Alternative Interpretation?’ Third World Quarterly.

Edward, P. and Sumner, A. (2016) Global Inequality and Global Poverty Since the Cold War? CROP Working Paper. Bergen: CROP/UiB.

Edward, P. and Sumner, A. (2015) Philanthropy, Welfare Capitalism or Radically Different Global Economic Model: What Would it Take to End Global Poverty within a Generation Based on Historical Growth Patterns? Center for Global Development (CGD) Working Paper. Washington DC: CGD.

Edward, P. and Sumner, A. (2015) New Estimates of Global Poverty and Inequality: How Much Difference Do Price Data Really Make? Center for Global Development (CGD) Working Paper. Washington DC: CGD (and ECINEQ Working Paper).

Edward, P. and Sumner, A. (2014) ‘Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference do Method and Assumptions Make?’ World Development 58: 67–82.

Edward, P. and Sumner, A. (2014) The Poor, The Prosperous and the ‘Inbetweeners’: A Fresh Perspective on Global Society,

Inequality and Growth. International Policy Center for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG)

Working Paper. Brasilia: UNDP-IPC.

Edward, P. and Sumner, A. (2013) The Geography of Inequality: Where and by How Much Has Income Distribution Changed since 1990? Center for Global Development (CGD) Working Paper. Washington DC: CGD.

Edward, P. and Sumner, A. (2013) The Future of Global Poverty in a Multi-Speed World: New Estimates of Scale and Location, 2010–2030 Center for Global Development (CGD) Working Paper. Washington DC: CGD.

 

 

 

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