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The public’s Brexit predictions


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A major survey by the Policy Institute at King’s, in partnership with Ipsos MORI and the UK in a Changing Europe, reveals what the public think will happen in the Brexit negotiations, and the impact of leaving the EU on key issues over the following five years.

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  • 44% of the public expect the UK to leave the EU in March 2019 without a deal in place, 29% expect us to leave with a deal and 7% think we will not leave the EU in March.


  • Labour Remain supporters are particularly likely to think we’re heading for a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, with 54% seeing this as the most likely outcome, while Conservative Leave supporters are most likely to think we’ll leave with a deal (53%).


  • Only 14% of the public expect Brexit to increase their own standard of living in the next five years, with 31% expecting their standard of living to decrease. This is anincrease in the proportion of the public expecting their standard of living to decrease, from 25% in June 2016. 41% of Labour supporters and 58% of Lib Dem supporters expect their living standards to decrease.


  • 39% of the public expect the UK economic growth rate to decrease as a result of Brexit, which is a balance of very different views between Leave and Remain supporters: 64% of Remain supporters expect Brexit to decrease growth rates, compared with only 17% of Leave supporters.


  • People are split onthe impact of Brexit on the quality of NHS services, with 34% expecting it to decrease.  The proportion of the public with this expectation has doubled since 2016, when only 17% thought Brexit would lead to a decline in the quality of NHS services.


Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 2,206 adults aged 18-75 across the United Kingdom. Interviews were conducted online between 28 September and 3October 2018. Data are weighted to the profile of the population.